Can a Wall Pay for Itself?: An Update

Center for Immigration Studies "When asking whether a border wall can pay for itself, the key questions are the cost of each illegal immigrant, and the number of illegal crossers, vs. the cost of a wall. Making reasonable estimates of these factors allows us to calculate what share of future illegal border-crossers the wall would have to stop or deter from trying to enter in order for the wall to be cost-effective. This updated analysis indicates that to pay for the president's $5 billion wall request, a wall would have to prevent about 60,000 crossings — or 3 to 4 percent of expected illegal crossers in the next decade. If we make much more conservative assumptions about both the cost of illegal immigrants and future flows, it still shows that a wall would have to stop or deter only a modest percentage of illegal crossings to pay for itself.

Findings

• In a prior analysis we took the likely education level of illegal border-crossers and applied fiscal estimates developed by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NAS) for immigrants by education level — excluding their children. These estimates indicated an average lifetime net fiscal cost of $74,722 per illegal crosser — $82,191 in 2018 dollars.
• Analysis by the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) indicates that there are 1.95 to 2.28 apprehensions for every successful illegal crossing. This translates to about 170,000 to 200,000 successful illegal crossings in 2018, or 1.7 million to two million over the next 10 years, assuming this level continues.
• The House passed a funding bill before Christmas with $5 billion for the wall, which means the wall would have to stop or deter 3 to 4 percent (60,000) of the future illegal crossers over the next decade to pay for itself.
• If we make conservative alternative assumptions that illegal crossers cost half what we estimate, and we further assume the future flows will be only half the 2018 level, then the wall would have to stop or deter 12 to 14 percent of expected illegal border-crossers in the next decade.

Read more...

My eye on “Black Eye”

Power Line  "The new Fox Nation subscription service posted the documentary Black Eye: Dan Rather and the Birth of Fake News at 6:00 a.m. (Eastern) this morning. The documentary revisits the Rathergate scandal from its origin in the 2000 presidential

campaign to the 2015 film Truth and slightly beyond. I have now watched the documentary and want to offer a few notes with my impressions on it for what they may be worth.

"The producers made a house call on John and me at the outset of their work on the documentary. Clips of our interview appear in the documentary several times. I feel too close to the story to judge it fairly. Please take everything I have to say with that reservation. I hope Power Line readers will view the documentary. It memorializes an important piece of history that has already receded into the mists of the ancient past.

" It’s an excellent documentary. It runs for 90 minutes, but it is incredibly fast-paced. It is interesting throughout. I think I know a lot about the Rathergate story, but I learned from the documentary while finding the whole thing of interest from beginning to end. The pell-mell pace makes me wonder whether the documentary should have been longer or extended into several parts. In any event, I am grateful that the film Truth will not be the last word on the scandal in video form.

Nancy Pelosi: Trump ‘Manufacturing a Crisis’ over Wall Funding Fight UUPDATED ( 1/13.19)

As Speaker, Nancy Pelosi Is Too Weak for Good Faith Negotiations  "It’s going to be a very frustrating two years for Americans who were hoping the new Congress would get to work on healthcare. The “negotiations” over border security have failed, leading to the longest partial government shutdown in history.
"House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., is too weak to negotiate in good faith, and favors securing talking points for her party in 2020 over sound policy to protect American citizens and vulnerable migrants.
"In constant fear of a far-left revolt, she is unwilling to compromise with President Donald Trump. The same is true of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., though his position is not nearly as tenuous as his counterpart.
"Democratic congressional leaders know it is easier to ensure their nominee has a broken promise to throw in the president’s face in 2020. They view The Wall as the political equivalent of “read my lips, no new taxes.”
"On Thursday, Senator Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., released a statement calling on President Trump to use his emergency powers to secure funds to construct wall/border security funding.
"The chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee is widely known as a moderate compromiser, and yet he cited Speaker Pelosi’s untenable position as the reason he decided to support the president’s plan to declare a national emergency." . . .

Nancy's problem  . . . "So Speaker Pelosi and her narrow House majority can do nothing at all, really, except fail to pass bills the president might sign into laws.  But because statute-making has largely become superfluous, she will have the nominal authority as one of the leaders of the federal government, but she will have almost nothing at all to do.
"As new House Democrats see that they can deliver absolutely nothing to their constituents after Nancy has promised the nation that she will use the House majority to do great things, these new House members will be put in a difficult position." . . .

Nancy Pelosi: Trump ‘Manufacturing a Crisis’ over Wall Funding Fight

Angel Parents Deliver Message About The Border Crisis: ‘Ms. Pelosi, This Is Our Son’
. . . “ 'It really ticks me off, when I see Pelosi acting like a 3-year-old and saying that it’s fabricated,” Corcoran began. “Ms. Pelosi, this is our son, this is Pierce Corcoran. He is dead. His death is real. His death is real. It’s not fabricated. He died at the hands of an illegal immigrant. We’re upset about that. We feel that the government owes the American people better than what we’re getting right now. And it really just upsets us when we hear you saying that, basically, that it doesn’t matter. Well, it matters to us.”

"Pierce Corcoran, 22, was killed when an illegal immigrant reportedly swerved into oncoming traffic. Francisco Eduardo Franco Cambrany, 44, has been charged with criminally negligent homicide in addition to driving without a license or insurance. And according to prosecutors, he is also currently facing the threat of deportation." . . . 

 

Update:  MSNBC’s Brian Williams mocks Pelosi, Schumer rebuttal: It launched ‘a thousand memes’ while they were still talking. . . "Williams asked former Democratic strategist James Carville why responses to Pelosi and Schumer’s remarks are “so bad' ' ”

Christine Flowers: Why I’m ready to buy a gun

"But the person who posted on my Facebook page shared a photo of a young boy standing over a  priest he’d just shot through the forehead. He also made some comments that I found personally threatening, and I called the police. It was the first time I’d ever done that."

Christine M. Flowers

Philly.com  . . . "But it’s time to take my life into my own hands, forget about all of the anti-gun rhetoric that I hear bandied about by those who exploit tragedy for their own political purposes, and make 2019 the year that I stop expecting others to look out for me.

"I think it started with the election of District Attorney Larry Krasner, which brought me the realization that in our current society, it can often feel like victims are left to fend for themselves. Krasner’s policies, developed over years as a defense attorney, seem to give him an affinity for the accused over the victimized. Recent stories about how his office has neglected to keep victims informed of plea deals strengthen my beliefs. It feels like victims don’t get the same amount of respect as, say, the fellow who stabs a young real estate agent in the back, or the guy who shoots a grocery store owner in the hip, or the fellow who bites off the ear of an innocent bystander.

"And it’s not just Krasner. It seems that we’ve become a society where criminals and alleged criminals are given an outsized amount of sympathy. Even President Trump just touted his criminal justice reform package. While I don’t think the solution is an old-style Dodge City shootout, it’s dawned on me that I might need something more than my persuasive personality as protection.

"Then, the other day, a fellow who called me a fascist posted something on my Facebook page that transcends First Amendment protections." . . .

Border Patrol Officer Shares Scale of International Influx into U.S. Southern Border…

The Last Refuge  "Straight from the epicenter of the issue, the U.S. Border Patrol outlines a single day of captured illegal aliens from countries other than Central America and Mexico.

"Just yesterday alone over 113 illegal entry apprehensions from Pakistan, India, China, Ecuador, Romania, Nicaragua and more. This CBP data is just from one border state in one day. "

Shutdown reaches the people-will-die stage

Don Surber  "People Will Die is the last-resort of the Democrat Party arguments.
"CBS reported on June 26, 2017, "Nancy Pelosi warns 'hundreds of thousands of people will die' if GOP health bill passes." . . .

. . . "The Daily Caller reported on July 10, 2018, "'People Will Die': Yale Students, Faculty Outraged Brett Kavanaugh Might End Abortion."

"The Guardian reported on September 19, 2018, "'People will die': Obama official's warning as Trump slashes refugee numbers."

"And of course, CNBC reporte on December 4, 2017, "Economist Larry Summers predicts 10,000 will die per year due to tax reform.' " . . .

Red Lobster Faces Boycott, Mockery After Pulling Ads From Tucker Carlson

Daily Wire

. . . "Fox News has stood behind Carlson, dismissing the advertiser boycott movement as just another campaign waged by "left-wing advocacy groups, under the guise of being supposed 'media watchdogs,'" who "weaponize social media against companies in an effort to stifle free speech."

"It is a shame that left-wing advocacy groups, under the guise of being supposed ‘media watchdogs,’ weaponize social media against companies in an effort to stifle free speech," Fox News said in a statement. "We continue to stand by and work with our advertisers through these unfortunate and unnecessary distractions."

"Carlson has also refused to back down, making clear on his show after the boycott was launched that he has no intention of caving to his critics and plans to continue to tell the truth about the impact of illegal immigration and our flawed immigration policies.

" 'The truth is unregulated mass immigration has badly hurt this country’s natural landscape. Illegal immigration comes at a huge cost to our environment," he said . . ."

‘Age of self-inflicted American shame is over’: Pompeo delivers blistering anti-Obama speech in Cairo

BizPacReview  "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reassured U.S. allies in the Middle East that the current administration is focused on righting the “dire” mistakes made under former President Obama’s leadership.
"In remarks made in Cairo, Egypt on Thursday, Pompeo issued a scathing rebuke of Obama’s policies in the region while seeking to reassure allies that President Donald Trump is committed to them despite announced plans to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria.

. . . “Remember, it was here, here in this very city, another American stood before you,” he said in a speech at the American University in Cairo.
“ 'He told you that radical Islamist terrorism does not stem from ideology. He told you 9/11 led my country to abandon its ideals, particularly in the Middle East. He told you that the United States and the Muslim world needed ‘a new beginning.’ The results of these misjudgments have been dire,” the top U.S. diplomat said.
“ 'In falsely seeing ourselves as a force for what ails the Middle East, we were timid about asserting ourselves when the times — and our partners — demanded it,” he added.
"He laid the blame for the rise of ISIS and hostility in Iran squarely on Obama’s shoulders before declaring that there’s a new sheriff in town with Trump.
“ 'The good news is this: The age of self-inflicted American shame is over, and so are the policies that produced so much needless suffering,” Pompeo said." . . .

"The National Security Action group, which is co-chaired by former Obama adviser Ben Rhodes – who helped write the 2009 Cairo speech – slammed Pompeo’s remarks in a statement, according to ABC News"

More on this at The Last Refuge  Pompeo's full speech text:
 . . . "So today, what did we learn from all of this? We learned that when America retreats, chaos often follows. When we neglect our friends, resentment builds. And when we partner with enemies, they advance.
"The good news. The good news is this: The age of self-inflicted American shame is over, and so are the policies that produced so much needless suffering. Now comes the real new beginning.

"In just 24 months, actually less than two years, the United States under President Trump has reasserted its traditional role as a force for good in this region. We’ve learned from our mistakes. We’ve rediscovered our voice. We’ve rebuilt our relationships. We’ve rejected false overtures from our enemies." . . .

Looks great if not staged. If that was Obama's photo I'd claim it was staged.

"NAIL IN THE COFFIN: Trump Finishes Off Acosta After Brutal Day"

Daily Wire

"President Donald Trump humiliated CNN's Jim Acosta on Thursday after the professional troll accidentally admitted that border walls work during the president's visit to McAllen, Texas.
"Acosta posted multiple videos to his Twitter account showing how safe the border was in an area where there were large steel slats separating the border.
"After being mocked the entire day on social media and in news reports, Trump mocked Acosta on Twitter, tweeting, "Dear Diary..." at him.
"The term "Dear Diary" is used to mock Acosta on social media because his posts often sound like he is writing his personal feelings in a diary." . . .

"Acosta had posted multiple videos on Twitter that earned him significant ridicule all day:"

Michelle Malkin

@michellemalkin

So physical border barriers work and you can safely shoot self-indulgent selfie vids without worrying about getting shot, robbed, kidnapped, or threatened. Thanks, tool!

John Daniel Davidson ✔ @johnddavidson

Imagine if a CNN reporter drove to a small town in western PA, whipped out his phone and said, "I found a white working class town, but I don't see any corpses of heroin addicts lying around in the streets..."

NBC News Reports Trump’s Wall Was Demolished by Common Tools–WRONG!

Independent Sentinel  "NBC faux news published a story claiming that the steel slat fence being touted by President Trump can be cut with common tools as a household saw.
"The only problems with their story are it can’t be cut with common tools and it isn’t even the same wall.
"The ‘news’ outlet posted an exclusive photo which they say shows the results of the test after military and border patrol personnel were told to destroy it with standard tools:

Posted by Jay Yarow, CNBC SVP, Executive Editor
Oh man. NBC NEWS: Test of the steel prototype for the border wall showed it could be sawed through. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/test-steel-prototype-border-wall-showed-it-could-be-sawed-n956856 …

. . . "As it turns out, it’s a different wall from the one in the photos. While NBC reports that, they bury it in suggestions that common tools will destroy it so quickly that it will have no value.

"The Department of Homeland Security was quoted stating the new design is not the one in the photos:

“While the design currently being constructed was informed by what we learned in the prototypes, it does not replicate those designs,” said Waldman. “The steel bollard design is internally reinforced with materials that require time and multiple industrial tools to breach, thereby providing U.S. Border Patrol agents additional response time to affect a successful law enforcement resolution. In the event that one of the steel bollards becomes damaged, it is quick and cost-effective to repair.

"Multiple industrial tools will be needed. So much for the groundbreaking story from NBC." . . .
Don Surber: NBC reporters showed they know as much about saws as they do AR-15s.  . . . "The NBC report said, "A photo exclusively obtained by NBC News shows the results of the test after military and Border Patrol personnel were instructed to attempt to destroy the barriers with common tools."
"Common tools?

"My readers take care of me and one of my favorites called NBC out.
"He wrote, "Cleary these were cut with an acetylene torch (one tank of acetylene and one tank of oxygen each weighting  about 70 plus pounds) something every illegal immigrant brings along as he comes to sneak into our country." . . .

A Local News Station Just Called Out CNN On Air for Their Border Narrative

Townhall  "Local news affiliate KUSI News in San Diego shared an interesting story Thursday night about an exchange they recently had with CNN. CNN called the station this week hoping the affiliate could provide a story or two about the border wall already in place in their community. When KUSI informed them that the barrier has actually been pretty effective, CNN hung up."

More on this here, including videos

" 'CNN asked if KUSI would find a reporter to offer our local view of the debate," one of the anchors explained on air. "Especially if the wall works in San Diego."

"When the affiliate offered CNN their reporter Dan Plante, who has previously reported how the wall "is not an issue" and is, in fact, "effective".

Fake news: CNN rejects local San Diego report on border wall because it doesn't support its 'narrative'  . . . "This raises questions about how deeply connected to the Democratic power structure this network really is.  The recent report of Democratic operative and CNN employee Donna Brazile slipping Hillary Clinton the presidential debate questions on the sly does not speak well for it.
"Now it is suppressing this.
"Any questions as to why the president calls CNN "fake news"?"

Wall haters. First Kamala Harris, now Becerra: Who picks California's Attorney Generals anyway?

Add caption

When you think your voters are simple drones, you can make any silly statement and they will be fine with it.

Trump to declare border emergency unless Congress acts  . . . "Mr. Trump disputed Democrats’ claims that he threw a “temper tantrum.”
“I didn’t pound my table, I didn’t raise my voice,” he said.
"He also blasted reporters for what he said were biased reports and distortions, saying “80 percent of you are possibly in coordination with the opposition party.”

"He said President Obama had called the border a “crisis” and said Democrats have voted for fencing in the past, only to oppose it now."

Isn't 5 cents per day worth it to reduce opioid deaths?  "The president is asking for $5.7 billion for the wall and other security measures.  That is around $17.50 for the 325 million people who live in America, or around 5 cents per day.  Think of all the government fees and taxes that cost way over 5 cents per day that will not save tens of billions of dollars in government expenditures each year because of reduced costs generated by illegal aliens.

"More than 72,000 people died from drug overdoses in the United States in 2017, and a significant amount of those drugs came through the southern border.  Democrats voted for money for a fence in 2006 and in 2013 on the southern border, but not now, when opioid deaths are much higher.  Isn't the opposition political?

"The media generally were not against the fence in 2006 nor 2013 and did not call Democrats who supported the fence racists.

"It is a shame that most journalists will flip their views based on Democrat talking points.

"I will gladly pay the $17.50 for both Pelosi and Schumer."

 Cpl. Singh's Brother Tells Trump to Do What He Needs to Do to Protect the Border

He and his family, he explained, legally immigrated to America to fulfill Ronil's dream of joining law enforcement.

California Acting Like It’s Own Nation   . . . "Well, a UC Berkeley poll just found that 74 percent of Californians wanted to end sanctuary cities including 55 percent of Hispanics, and 73 percent of Democrats. Now, if that’s not a cry for sanity or a cry for help, I do not know what is." . . .

                                                                                       Townhall