STRATFOR "
Summary: To begin to make sense of the escalating conflict in Gaza, we need to go back to the night of Oct. 23 in Khartoum. Around 11 p.m. that night, the Yarmouk weapons facility in the Sudanese capital was attacked, presumably by the Israeli air force. There were indications that Iran had been using this facility to stockpile and possibly assemble weapons, including anti-aircraft missiles, guided anti-tank missiles and long-range Fajr-5 rockets capable of reaching Tel Aviv and Jerusalem from Gaza."
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" The result is an Israeli military campaign in Gaza that places Hamas' credibility in question and could create more space for a group like the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which has close ties to Iran. The conflict will also likely create tension in Hamas' relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Jordan and Syria, since the Brotherhood, particularly in Egypt, is not prepared or willing to confront Israel beyond rhetoric and does not want to face the public backlash for not doing enough to defend the Palestinians from Israel Defense Forces. All in all, this may turn out to be a relatively low-cost, high payoff maneuver by Iran."
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| Jerusalem Post |
DEBKAfile; Palestinian rockets strike Jerusalem, Tel Aviv. Reserves call-up expanded-
"Signs of an approaching full-scale war increased Friday afternoon, Nov. 16. The IDF obtained government approval to call up reserves in addition to the 30,000 already approved. Hospitals across the country were placed on emergency footing and patients not needing urgent treatment were sent home. The security cabinet meets urgently after 550 Palestinian rockets fired in three days. Jerusalem and Tel Aviv were targeted Friday by Hamas which reported firing two “homemade M-75” missiles each at Israel’s capital and commercial hub. There were no casualties in either town."
So in the near future, the following discussion of the Iran-Obama relationship may become relevant: Reactions In Iran To President Obama's Reelection
"Tehran's official position is that is has no preference for either Republicans or Democrats in the U.S., and that Washington must essentially change its positions vis-à-vis Iran.[1] Indeed, in its first reaction to the election outcome, the regime mouthpiece Kayhan, which is close to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was dismissive, claiming that President Obama's reelection heralds no change in U.S. policy.
"At the same time, reformist circles not represented in the regime published articles both prior to and following the election indicating that they wanted Obama to win.
"Nonetheless, cautious initial reactions by senior Iranian regime officials indicate that Tehran is considering its steps vis-à-vis Obama's declared desire and intent to launch direct negotiations with Tehran.
"The following are excerpts from initial reactions in Iran to Obama's reelection. "...
A November 6, 2012 op-ed in the reformist daily Etemaad listed the advantages to Iran of an Obama reelection, noting that "Romney emits a scent of war, [while] from Obama there arises a melody of paying attention to the economic agenda." The op-ed went on to state: "The [re]election of Obama will be a nightmare for the right-wingers in Israel, particularly for Netanyahu... [because] Obama has had the worst relationship in recent years with the occupying regime." Praising Obama's policy vis-à-vis the Arab Spring, it noted: "It was the talent of the Democrats that they adapted to the changes in North Africa, particularly in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya," and added that "Had the Republicans been in the White House, their strategy regarding these changes in the Arab [world] would have been different." The op-ed also noted Obama's "wise strategy" in his two-pronged policy in managing the Syrian crisis – while he opposed the Syrian regime, it said, he did not act firmly against it, as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey demanded, due to his fear of a rise of Salafi circles.[
