Larry Kudlow "THE MAY JOBS REPORT IS A SHOCKER, WITH NONFARM PAYROLLS UP ONLY 38,000 AND PRIVATE JOBS UP A MERE 25,000. Investors and economists are making the case that this was a weird, one off, statistical glitch and that stronger employment is on the way. They might well be wrong.
"If you smooth out the numbers with a three month moving average, job increases have been slowing for five months. The three month pace in December was 281,000 jobs. In the May report, the pace nosedived to 107,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.7%, largely because 458,000 people left the labor force.
"This spells trouble for the economy. And if you step back and look at the whole business sector, a case can be made that the United States has been in a mild business recession for as much as a year, if not longer.
"Take business fixed investment in equipment, software, plants, buildings, and so forth. This has been slowing for six straight quarters. It even went negative in the first quarter on a year on year basis." . . .
"If you smooth out the numbers with a three month moving average, job increases have been slowing for five months. The three month pace in December was 281,000 jobs. In the May report, the pace nosedived to 107,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.7%, largely because 458,000 people left the labor force.
"This spells trouble for the economy. And if you step back and look at the whole business sector, a case can be made that the United States has been in a mild business recession for as much as a year, if not longer.
"Take business fixed investment in equipment, software, plants, buildings, and so forth. This has been slowing for six straight quarters. It even went negative in the first quarter on a year on year basis." . . .
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