What’s Next After the North Korea Nuclear Summit Breakdown?

The Trump-Kim Hanoi Summit ended without any agreement, but that doesn’t mean it’s over. "Pres. Trump himself clearly wants to avoid an escalation. His comments were firm but not harsh, giving Kim a chance to reconsider. He continued to stress the good personal relations between the two leaders, referred to his counterpart by his honorific title, “Chairman Kim,” and avoided diminutive nicknames like “Rocket Man.” That keeps the door open for negotiations, but Trump will not make any more goodwill payments like those that suckered his predecessors. Trump himself has already made one gesture by suspending joint US-South Korean military exercises. One important question now is whether Trump intends to resume those regular exercises.

"For Kim, the main question is what it always was: Will he take costly, irreversible steps to begin dismantling his nuclear program? The summit failure shows he has not yet decided to do that, which is different from saying he has definitely decided to keep the weapons and rocket program. We already know North Korea is still building new facilities. We don’t know if the US will call them out on that, either publicly or through leaks.

"To prevent an escalation, Kim must avoid any actions to show how “powerful” and independent he is, such as testing a missile. In making these decisions, Kim faces his usual problem: he cannot get good information about the risks and rewards because he is so isolated. Offer the Big Boss advice he doesn’t like and you die, as one of Kim’s aides did simply for falling asleep in a meeting.

"If Kim does not escalate, then the US probably won’t tighten current economic sanctions, at least not immediately. It will keep the current ones in place and work closely with allies on their multilateral implementation. China and Russia will continue to undercut them and probably do even more. If Kim does take a provocative act, however, then expect much tighter US sanctions and a very tense situation." . . .  

Charles Lipson is the Peter B. Ritzma Professor of Political Science Emeritus at the University of Chicago, where he is founding director of PIPES, the Program on International Politics, Economics, and Security. He can be reached at charles.lipson@gmail.com

  A Welcome Failure    "Donald Trump walked away from talks with North Korea, the best possible outcome given that he never should have walked into the talks to begin with.

""In the unlikely event that North Korea wanted to give up its nuclear program, it could have demonstrated its commitment over time in low-level talks building toward an agreement. Instead, President Trump took the high-wire route of two direct meetings with Kim Jong-un, giving the North Korea dictator, if nothing else, an incalculable propaganda coup by enhancing his international standing.
"Worse, Trump couldn’t help but make boosterish comments about the Supreme Leader, who enslaves and immiserates his people. In Hanoi, he even professed to take seriously Kim Jong-un’s denial that he had anything to do with Otto Warmbier’s murder, as if rogue security services are kidnapping and torturing Americans on their own initiative in the most tightly controlled society on Earth.
"All signs were that the North Koreans were heading to a diplomatic win . . .

Stilton's Place

"North Korea negotiations reveal media’s ignorance  . . . "Kim tried to offer Trump this deal: North Korea promises to de-nuclearize in return for the U.S. actually getting money into the broken North Korean economy. This is, of course, the same deal every past president has made with North Korea, and the outcome has always been the same: North Korea broke its promises even as the Americans fulfilled theirs to enrich North Korea’s coffers. Incidentally, it is also the same deal that Obama made with Iran, with exactly the same result. It’s a fool’s deal, intended to keep the media happy. It’s also the classic definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over, but expecting different results." . . 

How much can Democrats be blamed for the summit failure? . . . "While the Left was busy trying to sabotage the President of the United States, the President himself was in Vietnam trying to strike a nuclear disarmament deal with North Korea's Kim Jong Un.

"It is "possible" (we told you we like that word!) that Kim was aware of the attempted stateside tar-and-feathering of Mr. Trump, and decided that it would give him a leg up at the bargaining table. Which is why, when the vicious little despot announced that he wasn't willing to put anything substantive on the bargaining table, he was probably shocked by Trump's announcement that the summit was over and that he was leaving immediately without even staying for the fancy diplomatic lunch.
"Frankly, we think Mr. Trump handled this situation perfectly. There was never any guarantee of a deal, but Trump at least brought Kim to the table and, once the situation became clear, made him look like a petulant little jackass." . . .