Trump’s Base Remains Solid As Political Tide Turns

Right now, the race should not be the deadlock that Zogby found.  Biden desperately needs it to not be.  Biden needs a buffer now for the already turning political tides.  It is clear Trump’s base is rock-solid.  It has yet to be proved how much of one Biden has, let alone whether it will be there in November.  

Issues & Insights  "Despite 2020’s tough start, Trump’s base remains solid, which bodes well for his November.  National polls have recently shown a widening Biden lead; considering the current political environment, this is not surprising.  What is surprising is how well Trump has held up, and how well it positions him as political tides turn.  
"The current Real Clear Politics average of national presidential polling gives Biden a 50.1% to 41.3% lead less than five months from November’s election.  This fits conventional expectations that 2020’s rough first half is damaging the president’s re-election chances.  However, looking inside these national polls reveals a crucial shortcoming: They are not polling those most likely to vote.
"Of the eleven national polls making up RCP’s average, ten sampled “registered” voters, not “likely” voters.  Registered voter polls are historically less accurate and over-represent Democrats in their results. 
"One likely voter poll not included in RCP’s average is Zogby’s recent one (conducted 6/1-6/2 of 1,007 likely voters) which has Trump and Biden deadlocked at 46% apiece.  "Everything in Zogby’s was not perfect for the president; his approval/disapproval rating was negative — 48% approve/51% disapprove.  However, as Zogby noted: “During this almost exact moment at the end of Barack Obama’s first term, his job approval numbers were very similar…48% approve/50% disapprove.” . . .

J.T. Young served under President George W. Bush as the director of communications in the Office of Management and Budget and as deputy assistant secretary in legislative affairs for tax and budget at the Treasury Department. He served as a congressional staffer from 1987 through 2000.