Memo to Joe Walsh: Primary Challengers Never Win, And Neither Does Their Party

Issues & Insights "Any Republican supporting a primary challenge against President Donald Trump for the Republican nomination in 2020, if it is successful or even if it just hampers the primary process, is virtually guaranteeing the next president will be a Democrat.

Joe Walsh, friend of the Democrats

"And with it, Democrats will once again have all the trappings of the presidency, including nominating the next Supreme Court justices, signing laws and conducting foreign relations.

"In modern U.S. history of presidential elections since the nation’s first political primaries in 1912, no sitting president has ever been denied his party’s nomination at a nominating convention whilst standing for reelection. 2020 will be no different, wherein the Republican nominee for president will almost certainly be Donald Trump once again.

"Here’s another feature of those contests: Every single one of the one-term presidents of the 20th Century — William Howard Taft in 1912, Herbert Hoover in 1932, Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992 — all faced strong primary challenges.

"Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson both withdrew their candidacies from the elections of 1952 and 1968 respectively in the face of a strong primary challengers. Truman lostthe 1952 New Hampshire primary and Johnson barely won the 1968 New Hampshire primary. One can quibble about whether these count as being ousted or not but they were not on the ballots at the conventions because they were not contesting the conventions at that point. They forfeited. Both conventions ended up being brokered, with none of the prime vote getters in the primaries obtaining the nomination.