"They could all be confronted. But by the Obama administration?"
Victor Davis Hanson . . ."Our ability to meet these four threats depends on three factors. First, checking the four horsemen will require all U.S. military capabilities — nuclear deterrence, anti-ballistic missiles, traditional sea power, heavy traditional infantry and armor, special and counter-insurgency forces, and tactical and strategic air power. Cutting any of them at this juncture is madness.
"Second, all the threats are distinct but also opportunistic and interrelated. A phony red line, an empty step-over line, a serially repeated deadline against any one threat only encourages the other three to become bolder. In contrast, firmness against one aggression lessens the likelihood that there will be further aggrandizement elsewhere. Right now we are caught in a perfect storm of defense cuts, huge new borrowing, phony red lines, appeasement in the P5+1 negotiations in Vienna, the Libyan mess, the stupid Iraq pullout, the quagmire in Afghanistan, and comical resets and pivots. ISIS watches how we deal with Putin, who studies our past red line with Syria, which is watching the nonproliferation talks with Iran.
"Finally, all four have mortal enemies that are as worried about them as we are. Most Central and Eastern Europeans fear Putin more than we do. Our Pacific allies, terrified by China’s crude aggression, aren’t worried about an overbearing United States; rather, they desperately want U.S. leadership. A once-unthinkable alliance has emerged between Israel and moderate Sunni states in their complex opposition to both Iran and ISIS. Forming coalitions in any of these regions would be far easier than it was in the past to find friends who would go into Afghanistan or Iraq.
"If this administration is not careful, by next year it may find ISIS at the gates of Baghdad, Russian forces massing on the border of Estonia, Japan and China shooting at each other over disputed air and sea space, and Iran stockpiling its growing enriched-uranium supplies for a not too distant multi-bomb nuclear rollout.
"We think the world is growing tense; in fact, it is only the calm before the storm."
No comments:
Post a Comment