Power Line . . . "Speaking of superdelegates, the Democrats are probably going to sharply reduce their number. Hillary Clinton gave them a bad name last time.
"Add it all up, and the situation looks quite favorable for Harris. She will run as a progressive in the Obama-Sanders mold. Like Obama she has the advantage of being African-American. She may not move African-Americans to the same degree as Obama and Jesse Jackson did, but she should massively outperform Sanders with this cohort.
. . .
"Add it all up, and the situation looks quite favorable for Harris. She will run as a progressive in the Obama-Sanders mold. Like Obama she has the advantage of being African-American. She may not move African-Americans to the same degree as Obama and Jesse Jackson did, but she should massively outperform Sanders with this cohort.. . .
"Finally, Harris will benefit from the decline of anything resembling a Democratic center. As Olsen points out, in 2016 “very liberal” Democrats made up a significantly larger percentage of Democratic primary voters than they did as recently as 2008, while moderate conservative primary voters were outnumbered in virtually every state.
"However, Harris’ path to the nomination is littered with uncertainty, as one would expect this far out. She might have to share the progressive vote with Sanders and/or others. She might have to share the African-American vote with Cory Booker. If Joe Biden runs, it’s conceivable that, given his service to Barack Obama, he could win a decent share of the African-American vote as the establishment candidate.
"Harris might also turn out to be a dud on the campaign trail.
"So if the bet is Kamala Harris vs. the field, I’d take the field. If it’s Harris vs. any single candidate, I’d bet on Harris." . . .
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