Friday, October 11, 2019

What makes Fox News's 'Trump impeachment' poll totally unreliable

We have been reminded that early polls cannot be trusted because their main purpose is to influence opinion, not reflect it. Closer to election the pollsters know their reputation depends on their accuracy. TD

Steve McCann  . . . "Polling in modern America has degenerated into a vehicle to create news and headlines and to shape public opinion on an issue or an individual.
"Over the past few days, the lead on every cable news channel and the headline in virtually all newspapers is Fox News claiming in its exclusive poll that 51% of Americans now favor impeachment and removal of President Trump.
"How did the Fox polling unit come up with this number?
"The Fox news polling companies interviewed 1,003 registered voters, ostensibly throughout the length and breadth of the United States.  Many polling companies use either all adult Americans (254 million) or registered voters (158 million in 2016) as their universe for polling.  Obviously, the greater the number of potential people to contact and question, the easier a poll is to complete and to skew a result.  In reality, what matters is who votes in an election.  In 2016, 86% (or 136.6 million) of registered voters cast a vote.  A poll of likely voters would inherently be more reliable but more difficult to achieve.  Currently, only Rasmussen among national polls uses exclusively likely voters and they are among the most reliable." . . .
. . . "The polling firms can manipulate the results by 1) using adults or registered voters, 2) skewing the universe of those polled, and 3) tinkering with the make-up of the questions asked.  As virtually all polling firms are in league with the Democrats and the media, any poll result splashed across the front page of a newspaper or as a major topic of conversation in the electronic media must be assumed to be biased and the end product of manipulation."

Trump Campaign Cites Democrats In Sample, Lack Of Independents To Blast ‘Garbage’ Fox News Poll About Impeachment  . . . “ '51 percent wants Trump impeached and removed from office, another 4 percent want him impeached but not removed, and 40 percent oppose impeachment altogether,” Fox News reported Wednesday, a result that signified a 9 percent jump from July, when the question was last posed." . . .

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