Why do third-party candidates have to be conservatives, thereby guaranteeing a Democrat win?
The Hill At a certain point, all decisions and election chances in politics come down to basic math. No matter how some consultants, pollsters or campaign managers may attempt to complicate the process to justify their fees or salaries paid by a candidate or company, it still comes down to this: Does the math finish on the “plus side” for him or her to run, and does it finish on the plus side for the candidate to win?
"My mother used to say, “If you can read, you can cook.” In the arena of political elections, if you can do basic addition and subtraction, you can honestly advise a candidate whether to run. Former President Donald Trump has some of that basic math working against him — but also, for him.
"What he and his mercurial ego really will do becomes the political question of the 2024 presidential cycle.
"With each passing week, there are reports of more and more Republicans suffering from “Trump fatigue.” Although many still strongly approve of most of Trump’s policies from his four years in the White House, they have grown increasingly tired of his perceived juvenile antics and insults. Worse for Trump, many now blame him for the GOP losing the chance to take control of the Senate — not only in the November midterms, when he forced marginal candidates on the party with his endorsements, but also back in 2021 when he suppressed GOP voter turnout with negative comments and attacks in Georgia’s runoff election.
"On top of that, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis comfortably leads Trump in the latest polls among Republicans. Given all this, does it spell the end for Trump as a viable GOP presidential candidate?
"Not necessarily. It all comes down to those fairly simple addition and subtraction equations.
"In this case, the relevant question becomes: If Trump decides to run as a third-party candidate, could he somehow manage to win enough significant states to beat the GOP nominee (whether it’s DeSantis or someone else) and the Democratic nominee (whether it’s President Biden or someone else)? Even a high school student who’s truly proficient in math might be able to give Trump that answer.. . .
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