"Worried? The truth is, the last 10 recessions all have been preceded by two things: One, a two-quarter GDP decline (not including Biden’s non-recession call). And, two, an inverted yield curve, which is what happens when short-term interest rates on U.S. treasuries are higher than long-term rates, a sign that investors have become incredibly risk averse.
"That’s highly relevant right now, since during the Biden years the yield curve inverted in July of 2022 and remained that way until late 2024, becoming the longest yield-curve inversion in history. Yet, in the mainstream media, it barely warrants mention, outside of the financial press.
"But, if a recession comes, as seems possible, Trump will almost certainly get blamed, despite the yield curve inversion happening under Biden. Democrats, as the I&I/TIPP Poll shows, seem eager to blame Trump for anything that happens on his watch, whether he causes it or not." issues & Insights.
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