Dare I do this? A closer look at polls

The TW has stayed away from this for the entire election cycle, realizing polls are released by a media that leans Democrat and uses polls to shape opinion, not reflect it. Besides, what are polls good for, even if they were truly accurate, given the fickleness of the American voter and the shallowness of our convictions on a given day? Can you remember what polls said viv-a-vis Romney and Obama on, say, October 5th? Meaningless until we get to what voters think this day before the election. Forget about a poll of those who voted days ago in early voting and wish they could change their minds already.

CNN’S LATEST POLL DECONSTRUCTED: DOES IT REALLY SHOW A ROMNEY VICTORY?  "This CNN poll is truly great news for Republicans unless you believe that Democrats will vote 11 percent more than Republican this year and very few people do (outside of CNN apparently). The reality is that, using CNN’s own numbers, anything under an 11 percent voting advantage for Democrats results in a popular vote victory for Gov. Romney. You have to wonder why they chose 11 percent."

WaPo-ABC tracking poll: final weekend tally is Obama 50, Romney 47, still a ‘margin of error’ contest

Jonathan Tobin; Tracking Polls Say Election No Sure Thing  "To listen to the Obama campaign and many liberal pundits the last few days, the presidential election is a foregone conclusion and the president is a sure bet to be re-elected. But even ... the latest national tracking polls tell a different story. The president is ahead in none of the four most recent national tracking polls. Mitt Romney has a slender one-percentage point lead in both the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls taken over the last few days, while he is tied with the president in the CNN/Opinion Research and the Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll. Taken together, and even if one is inclined to believe one more than another, the quartet of surveys illustrates that the race remains very close with either candidate in position to win.



Barone

Michael Barone; Prediction: Romney Beats Obama, Handily  "Also, both national and target-state polls show that independents — voters who don’t identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans — break for Romney.

"That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting — and about their candidate — than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so."

...."Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals."  Hot Air adds its two cents worth.

Rush Limbaugh has a great deal to say on the polls, including a paean to Michael Barone's excellence, including calling Barone the gold standard of prognostication; Everything -- Except the Polls -- Points to a Romney Landslide

American Thinker; Why it may be 'Back to the Drawing Board' for pollsters after this election

"AT's political correspondent Rich Baehr believes at least part of the problem is that voters are lying to pollsters. There might be something to that, except most good pollsters throw trick questions into their surveys that are designed to reveal the liars. Baehr thinks that Americans have become very sophisticated when it comes to polls and have learned how to give answers they think makes them look good, rather than what they truly believe."