Friday, January 10, 2020

Iran’s Options in a Showdown with America Are All Bad

Victor Davis Hanson


Trump governs the tempo of the confrontation.


"After losing its top strategist, military commander, and arch-terrorist, Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian theocracy is weighing responses.
"One, Iran can quiet down and cease military provocations.
"After attacking tankers off its coast, destroying an oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, shooting down a U.S. drone, and being responsible for the killing and wounding of Americans in Iraq, Iran could now keep quiet.
"It might accept that its strategy of escalation has failed to lead to any quantifiable advantage. Trump did not prove a passive “Twitter tiger,” as his critics mocked. Instead, he upped the stakes to Iran’s disadvantage and existential danger.
"The chances, however, for such a logical and passive readjustment by Iran are nil.
"Iran believes that Trump’s beefed-up sanctions have all but destroyed its economy and could now extend to secondary boycotts of nations trading with Iran. U.S. sanctions have also squeezed Iranian expeditionary efforts to forge a permanent hegemony and a Shiite crescent extending to the Mediterranean." . . .

. . . "Given the quick criticism of Soleimani’s killing from Trump’s progressive domestic opponents, and given the Obama administration’s past appeasement in response to Iranian provocations, Tehran might conclude that a hit-and-pause strategy is preferable.It could incite Trump’s political opponents to brand him a warmonger who acted illegally by “assassinating” Soleimani." . . .
 Trump Calls the Ayatollah’s Bluff  "The successful operation against Qassem Soleimani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, is a stunning blow to international terrorism and a reassertion of American might. It will also test President Trump's Iran strategy. It is now Trump, not Ayatollah Khamenei, who has ascended a rung on the ladder of escalation by killing the military architect of Iran's Shiite empire. For years, Iran has set the rules. It was Iran that picked the time and place of confrontation. No more." . . .

 And indeed, this is what the Democrat/Ayatollah alliance is doing:
Democrats pile on to blame America for downing the Ukrainian plane
"It's hard to recall, but once upon a time, the majority of American politicians, including Democrats, were able to set aside partisan bickering for at least a moment in the face of foreign aggression against the United States.  After 9/11, for example, Congress spontaneously responded by singing Irving Berlin's "God Bless America.' "

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