Damaged or destroyed - how much does leaked US report on Iran's nuclear sites tell us?

 BBC

"The site of Fordo is probably the most spied-on place on the planet.

"Western intelligence first went public in 2009 that it was home to a secret nuclear facility and now understanding the damage done by US strikes will be vital in determining where the conflict goes next.

"A leaked Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessment has suggested the core components of Iran's nuclear programme have not been destroyed and the strikes only set back Iran's efforts by months rather than years.

"But that is only an initial assessment and labelled as "low confidence" – the tag comes because it is early days in trying to understand what happened at a place which is deliberately hidden from prying eyes." . . .

. . ."Even so, the centrifuge machines, which spin at high speeds to enrich uranium, are highly sensitive which means the explosion will likely have crashed many of them by sending them spinning off their axis.

"Developing a clearer picture of the damage will require other forms of intelligence – ranging from seismic detectors which can analyse the depth and magnitude of underground explosions (also used to understand earthquakes), sniffers to look for radiation (which international inspectors say they have not seen), and sensors like LIDAR (light detection and ranging) which can provide 3D maps using laser pulses from aircraft or drones to try and look inside the mountain.

"Informers and intercepted communications will also be vital as they may reveal Iranians discussing the damage and its implications. All of that will be constantly updated to provide the final assessment with a higher degree of confidence.

"And even if the sites like Fordo were dealt serious damage and made unusable for the moment, as US officials have claimed, that is different from saying it is the end of Iran's overall programme. That is because it could be reconstituted at new sites.

"A fleet of lorries was seen at Fordo just before the attack and the crucial question is what they were moving and where it has gone." . . .   Much more here.