"In either case, the Trump administration should force the conversation rather than simply accepting Israeli judgements about the best way forward. Evaluating the prospects for military options requires good intelligence — and a willingness among policymakers to pay attention."
"States use intelligence to inform their strategic decisions — and to influence their friends. Israel has a long history of passing secret intelligence to the United States in order to win its support, and according to multiple reports, it is trying again. The White House is more likely to join the war against Iran if it accepts Israeli intelligence at face value. But in doing so, it will sacrifice its strategic flexibility and risk losing diplomatic leverage. For a president who cherishes bargaining power, this would be a grave mistake.
"History helps shed light on the relationship between intelligence, strategy, and clandestine diplomacy. In 1967, Israeli officials approached the White House in search of material support in advance of the coming war with Egypt, Syria, and Jordan. To make the case, they shared a pessimistic intelligence analysis of the balance of forces and the danger of fighting a Soviet-backed alliance that surrounded Israel on all sides. President Lyndon B. Johnson had offered rhetorical support, but they wanted much more.
"Although the administration had reasons to avoid entanglement in a Middle Eastern war, Johnson was sufficiently concerned to ask the CIA for its assessment of the looming conflict. The agency predicted that Israel would win decisively and quickly. Armed with this analysis, Johnson parried Israeli requests. “All of our intelligence people are unanimous that if [Egypt] attacks,” he told the Israeli foreign minister, “you will whip hell out of them.”
"The CIA got it right. The famously lopsided war began with an Israeli surprise attack and ended six days later with a comprehensive Israeli victory. Johnson limited military support and avoided U.S. intervention, managing to spare the country from involvement in another war at a time when public opposition to Vietnam was increasing.
"A similar story is playing out today. Israeli officials are making ominous statements about Iran’s nuclear capability. Invoking the Holocaust, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that a comprehensive attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure was needed to stave off disaster, “We can’t leave these threats for the next generation,” he said, “if we don’t act now, there won’t be a next generation.” And as was the case in 1967, Israel has reportedly shared intelligence on Iranian nuclear research and its progress towards the bomb.
. . ."
Joshua Rovner is associate professor of international relations at American University, and nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. His most recent book is Strategy and Grand Strategy.
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