"When Iranians view nuclear power, they view it not through a “mutually assured destruction” filter, but as the fulfillment of prophecy."
"Energy markets do not stop at borders. Neither do shipping lanes, alliance commitments, or the ripple effects of regional conflict. When those systems are disrupted, the consequences are not regional—they are immediate and far-reaching, requiring new strategic thinking, including the possibility of early intervention."
"Iran is about 7,300 miles away from where I live in Florida. To many Americans, that distance makes the Middle East irrelevant, appearing in their lives only as something associated with higher gas prices, periodic wars, and political arguments that seem disconnected from daily reality. So they ask a reasonable question: why are we involved at all?
"It’s a simple question, but the wrong answer is uniquely dangerous.
"America, more than any modern nation, functions as its own ecosystem. The belief that distance insulates it—and that security can be reduced to guarding its borders—is widespread, but fundamentally wrong. With dominance in technology, energy, finance, and culture, it is tempting to believe we can wall ourselves off from global instability. That belief only works if instability stays contained, but that’s not how instability works.
"Americans tend to reduce the Middle East to two variables: oil and Israel. Energy independence is cited as proof that the region no longer matters. Israel is increasingly treated as either a moral cause or a political liability, depending on perspective. But both frameworks miss the deeper structure underneath the region’s instability.
"That structure starts with Iran.
"Iran is not simply another regional actor. It is the primary organizing force behind much of the region’s persistent instability. Remove Iran and its network of aligned actors, and the Middle East does not become peaceful—but it does lose its coordinated, multi-theater pattern of sustained proxy warfare. Instead of an arc of linked conflicts spanning multiple regions, most violence would likely revert to more localized, fragmented disputes.
"This pattern is visible across multiple theaters, from Hezbollah’s sustained military infrastructure in Lebanon to Houthi disruption of maritime traffic in the Red Sea, where commercial shipping routes tied to global energy flows have repeatedly come under pressure.
"That matters because Iran is not operating as a conventional state acting only through narrow national interest. It is a system shaped by an espoused belief that combines ideological mission with strategic calculation.
"Iran is not a conventional nation-state. It is the product of a revolution that defines itself as unfinished." . . . More...
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