Sunday, April 14, 2024

Why Iran May Have Just Overplayed Its Hand by Attacking Israel

  RedState

"Overall, though, Iran could be left significantly weakened after this, with other nations in the region looking to capitalize. This isn't World War III. It's not even a regional conflict at this point, and the combined air power of Israel, the United States, and the United Kingdom represents a huge technological advantage over anything Iran can put into the sky." . . .

"As RedState reported, Iran launched a large-scale air attack on Israel using drones and ballistic missiles. It represented the biggest escalation from the Islamic Republic against the Jewish state in history, which has long used proxy militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen to do its dirty work. This is different, and the response from Israel and possibly the United States will be different, with reports circulating that Israel will retaliate against Iran regardless of whether lives are lost in the current attack."

 Hezb’allah tries to explain away the wipeout of Iran’s attack on Israel - American Thinker

"How will all of this unfold? Those with a heavy isolationist bent are already predicting doom and shouting "World War III" at the top of their lungs. Yet, there's every reason to believe that Iran has severely overplayed its hand. 

"Let's game this out, taking some of the most hysterical suggestions at face value. For example, what are the chances this turns into a "regional war" being fought by multiple state powers against Israel? The answer to that is almost zero. Most of the Arab nations hate the Iranian regime and want to see it falter. Sure enough, instead of offering support to Iran, the Saudis and Jordanians immediately pledged to shoot down any Iranian projectiles and aircraft that violated their airspace. 

"There is no reason to believe any other nation in the Middle East will join Iran in a hot war against Israel. The Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, one of Iran's only true allies in the region, has no capacity to do anything but hold what territory it still has following its civil war. The rest of the Arab nations are mostly aligned against Iran, even if not explicitly. Yes, they make a lot of noise in Arabic about the Palestinian issue, but that's for domestic consumption. When push comes to shove, they aren't putting their necks on the line for Iran. 

"So what happens if Israel and Iran engage in a more protracted war? From the jump, we know Israel isn't going to invade Iran nor does Iran have any ability to invade Israel. That means an air war is the only real possibility, and one that Israel would easily win. Iran's air force is multiple generations behind. We are talking about less than 200 very outdated fighters, with ancient F-14s and Mig-29s being the pinnacle of their technology. American-made F-35s and even older F-15s would have a field day. Does Iran want to engage in such a fight? I tend to doubt it given they know they'd lose everything they have. I bet they want their attack to be the end of this, but Israel may not give them a choice.

"That's where Iran has likely overplayed its hand. The Islamic nation could now see many of its most important strategic sites hit, including its nuclear facilities. In return, they can only fling low-tech drones and missiles over at Israel, most of which will never make it through. The status quo of its proxy militias launching largely ineffective attacks will also continue." . . . 

"Overall, though, Iran could be left significantly weakened after this, with other nations in the region looking to capitalize. This isn't World War III. It's not even a regional conflict at this point, and the combined air power of Israel, the United States, and the United Kingdom represents a huge technological advantage over anything Iran can put into the sky. The Islamic Republic has officially pushed too far to try to save face, and they'll now pay the price. " . . .

Iranians, Palestinians Celebrate on Streets After Iran's Israel Attack—but the Hangover May Be Rough

"As I wrote earlier, it was hard to believe that in the face of the threat of an attack on Israel from Iran, Joe Biden insisted on going to vacation to his beach house. I don't know what it is that they do for him there, but Biden must be pretty desperate for it--or in complete disregard for everything important--when he behaves that way." Nick Arama.


Hezb’allah tries to explain away the wipeout of Iran’s attack on Israel - American Thinker  Thomas Lifson

The stunning unity of the response to Iran’s attack, with U.S., British, and even Jordanian aircraft shooting down the mass attack of drones is being viewed through the other end of the telescope here. Hezb’allah is pointing Israel haters, especially those in the U.S., toward even stronger attempts to undermine political support for Israel.
 . . ."The U.S. played the biggest instrumental role in eliminating the bulk of drones, giving Israel a breathing room because engaging 170 drones was no easy task. At least 10-25% percent would have penetrated and impacted in Israel.
According to reports, the U.S alone shot down at least 70 out of the 170 drones. They used air defence in ships and using jets in air-to-air combats. Shooting drones with jets isn't hard, just expensive. Whatever remained was shot down on the way over Jordan by Jordan, then by Israeli jets. The number of Israeli jets airborne in defense mode was almost on par with the numbers of drones that remained as threat. That's saturating defense. As for ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, the sight of the impact of those 3 was beautiful. It's a dream come true. . . .

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