"What matters politically and economically, because these households feel price increases first and relief last.
"What is coming this year may determine far more than a single election cycle.
"It may determine whether voters believe Republicans are still capable of delivering tangible economic relief in an era defined by anxiety, frustration, and fading trust.
"At the center of that test stands Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, now law, and the broader Working Families Tax Cuts agenda that flows from it. Together, they form the most consequential Golden Age economic story heading into November. Even as their impact is being partially blunted by policy failures emanating from America’s largest blue states and metropolitan areas.
"Voters are uneasy, and the data leaves little room for denial.
"Consumer confidence remains near historic lows despite modest month-to-month improvements. The preliminary January 2026 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index registered 54.0, only slightly higher than December but down roughly 25 percent from January 2025, reflecting persistent fears over inflation, prices, and labor market softness.
"Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index tells a similarly sobering story. In December, it fell to minus 33, the lowest level since mid-2024. 47 percent of Americans called current economic conditions poor and 68 percent said the economy is getting worse. Separate Gallup polling shows only 30 percent of Americans expect economic prosperity in 2026. Just 36 percent anticipate job growth, dramatic drops from expectations a year earlier.
"This is the environment in which the One Big Beautiful Bill enters its first full year of impact."... . More...
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