Saturday, March 7, 2026

Iran's weapons are increasingly becoming missiles with nowhere to go.

 Shanaka Anslem Perera   

The missiles still exist in tunnels and caches across Iran. They are increasingly becoming missiles with nowhere to go.

"oooooh! Up in smoke!

 

"Everyone is counting Iran’s missiles. They are counting the wrong thing. "The number that determines the outcome of this war is not 2,000 or 2,500 or 3,000. Those are pre-war missile inventory estimates and they are now largely irrelevant. The number that determines the outcome is the one that moved from 504 to 29 in five days. "On Day 1 of Operation Epic Fury, Iran fired 504 ballistic missiles and drones across the Gulf theater. On Day 5, the number was 29. That is a 94 percent collapse in daily launch volume in less than a week. Not because Iran ran out of missiles. Because Iran ran out of the thing that launches them. "Launchers." . . .

. . . "Iran’s missile doctrine was built on volume and simultaneity. The mass salvo, hundreds of missiles launched in coordinated waves from dispersed platforms designed to overwhelm Iron Dome and US Patriot batteries by saturating their intercept capacity, is the only mechanism by which Iran’s missile force constitutes a genuine strategic threat to Israel. A degraded launcher pool that can produce 29 fires per day is not a mass salvo capability. It is a harassment capability. The two are not the same threat in any meaningful military sense." . . .

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