The math at the pump: Before you blame Trump, follow the damn barrel

"Iran matters, refiners matter, supply matters—and the price on that sign has more than one father."

George P. Brooks - American Thinker

"The next time somebody reduces all of that to a meme blaming one politician, ask them to do something apparently terrifying in modern political discourse: Show the entire math, not merely the number that helps your narrative."

"Gasoline has become one of America’s favorite political intelligence tests, because the moment the numbers on the sign change, half the country forgets how commodities work. Gas goes down and whichever president you like deserves a parade; gas goes up and whichever president you hate apparently crawled out of bed at four in the morning, drove to every Chevron in America and changed the numbers personally. It would almost be funny if ordinary Americans weren’t watching eighty dollars disappear into an SUV while television competes to provide the dumbest possible explanation.

"As of September 25, AAA puts the national average for regular gasoline around $4.49 per gallon, compared with roughly $3.16 a year ago. AAA identifies expensive crude oil and volatility surrounding the Strait of Hormuz as major pressures, while gasoline demand rose from 8.79 million to 8.84 million barrels per day, inventories fell from 207.7 million to 206 million barrels and gasoline production slipped slightly. Several variables are moving before Donald Trump’s name even enters the conversation.

"Iran and Hormuz absolutely matter. EIA says disruptions to petroleum flows through Hormuz contributed to higher and more volatile oil prices during 2026 while pushing international buyers toward alternative supplies and increasing U.S. refinery margins, production, and exports. The conflict can therefore hit gasoline twice: through crude prices and through global competition for finished petroleum products.

"What I reject is the lazy explanation that says, “There’s a war in Iran, therefore gas is expensive.” That is like explaining a hamburger’s price by showing me the cost of a cow while ignoring the slaughterhouse, trucking company, restaurant, taxes, labor, and the gentleman behind the counter who apparently believes adding bacon now requires financing.

"Crude is the raw material, not the finished product. EIA breaks gasoline prices into crude-oil costs, refining costs and profits, taxes, and distribution and marketing. Showing only a crude-oil chart is showing one chapter of the book and pretending you’ve read the ending." . . .   More.