Friday, December 29, 2017

A wave of what color?

Silvio Canto, Jr.  "It's the last week of 2017, and people are already making predictions about 2018.  So let me give my early take on all this.
Let's start with Newt Gingrich, who predicted a "surprise" in 2018:
The great political surprise of 2018 will be the size of the Republican victory.
After members of the elite media have spent two years savaging President Trump, lying about Republican legislation, and reassuring themselves that Republican defeat was inevitable, the size of the GOP victory in 2018 will be an enormous shock.
"Newt goes on to mention our friend Barry Casselman, who has a good eye for political waves:
H[i]storically ... the party out of power makes gains in the first mid-term election after [it] lose[s] the White House.
This precedent has fueled recent media and Democratic Party strategists' anticipations of a 2018 "blue wave."
This tide in blue might still happen, but the genuine signs for it are not yet present. " . . .
Wellll, not so fast. Let's not set up that fireworks display on the river quite yet: 

We Don't Need No Stinkin' Predictions  . . . "The trouble with predictions is that if you are right, and you remind others of that, you end up looking like a jerk.  And if you are wrong, you will be reminded of that fact too often.

"Another issue with predictions: The professional pontificators making them are rarely held to account when wrong.  Instead, they remain working at places like the N.Y. Times, CNN, and MSNBC.

"No, you will not hear any predictions from me.  Instead, it's more fun to look back at those foolish enough to make them to see who was right and who was wrong."
. . . As we look back on the year that was, and forward to the year that will be, one thing we can count on is that dire predictions rarely come to pass.  Proclamations of pending greatness follow a similar pattern – although, judging from the above, it appears that greatness is leading at the moment." . . .

No comments: