. . . "I say this race has bad vibes because, apart from two weeks earlier this month, Sinema has led basically the whole way. A poll taken during the Kavanaugh saga found McSally ahead by six, then another survey in mid-October put her ahead by two. That raised the possibility that Arizonans were coming home to the GOP in the final weeks of the race and/or that the “Kavanaugh effect” was starting to bite Sinema like it had Heidi Heitkamp and/or that the drumbeat of old video of Sinema dumping on Arizona’s politics had caught up to her. But the last two polls, each taken this week, have her back up by three and six points, respectively. Overall she’s led in nine of the last 11 polls taken, occasionally by margins as large as six or seven points. If there were any Kavanaugh-related backlash to the Democrat or any umbrage taken at her Arizona remarks, it appears to have worn off.
"Or maybe it was blunted by other forces?
"The polls this morning are indeed bad for the GOP, especially in the House. (There are posts coming up about that.) It’s easy to pin that on Trump, but NBC’s data suggests another possibility in Arizona:" . . .
No comments:
Post a Comment