Tuesday, November 8, 2022

Follow the pols, not the polls

 Don Surber  "Democrats are a broken party.

"In April, I looked 7 months into the future and saw Republicans gaining 36 seats in the House, which would give them their greatest majority in 94 years. I figured they would hold all their Senate seats and flip Arizona and Georgia.

"But seasons change and new issues arise. Democrats thought the reversal of Roe v. Wade and passage of the Green New Deal (cynically labeled the Inflation Reduction Act) would save them. They chatted among themselves and convinced one another that Biden would defy gravity and gain seats and keep both the House and the Senate.

"Even now, Nate Silver includes in his forecast a scenario where Democrats add 9 House seats and 5 Senate seats.". . .

"The only thing that's changed is Democrats dug in on abortion and climate change while the public worried about inflation and crime with immigration hanging over them like a black cloud over all of it. 

"I am tempted to make that prediction 100 seats in the House and 10 in the Senate.

"Realistically, the ceiling on Republican gains is about half that (48 House seats and 6 in the Senate). But then again, two weeks ago Kathy Hochul looked like a lock for to remain governor of New York.

"Philip Marey of Rabobank's market research department predicts Republicans will gain 75 House seats and 11 Senate seats giving it majorities of 288-147 and 61-39.

"I ain't arguing against that because Democrats imploded by acting like overlords instead of public servants.". . .

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