John Podhoretz; Commentary Magazine
“In the poll, only 83 percent of voters who say they chose Biden in 2020 plan to vote for him this year, whereas 97 percent who voted for Trump plan to vote for Trump again.
"There’s a scene in the peerless animated comedy Monsters Inc.—a cable-news special report featuring Dr. Frasenberger, who looks like a giant pencil. “It is my professional opinion,” he begins calmly, “that now is the time…TO PANIC!!!!!” If I were a Democrat today, or a Never Trumper, I would be Dr. Frasenberger. Because now is the time TO PANIC!!!! if you don’t want Donald Trump to be president.
"The release early Sunday morning of a New York Times-Siena poll of the presidential race showing Trump up by 5 points nationally not only confirms the undeniable evidence over the past six months that Trump has pulled into a measurable lead in the presidential race outside the margin of error but also that things are getting worse and worse for the president as the year 2024 progresses.
"There is literally no good news for Biden in this poll. Let’s break it down.
"First, the simple practical math. NYT-Sienna confirms results we’ve been seeing for months now. It features Trump winning by 4 nationally—and remember that even in victory in 2016, Trump lost the popular vote by 3 points. Trump has not historically done well in national polling. If you go back and add up the number of days in the 2016 and the 2020 electoral races, you find that Trump led in the poll averages on exactly 5 days out of 600—and never for a single day against Biden.
"Now get this. On October 18, 2023, Biden and Trump were tied in the RCP average of all polling. Since that day, 135 days ago, Trump has led. Every single day. Not by a huge amount, mind you—his largest margin came on January 26, when he led by 4.3 points. As I write, his lead is 2.3 points. Still, the point stands. It may have taken him 8 years in presidential politics to achieve it, but Trump is now a steady polling favorite." . . .
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