Monday, February 21, 2011

Intelligence Guidance: Protests and Unrest

STRATFOR There has now been some spark of unrest in places as far afield as Cote d’Ivoire and Iran. For the most part, these protests are limited in size and scope, and not all of them are connected. But are some? Are there protests unified by common themes? Are there common forces at work behind the scenes in some cases?
Examine the following countries in particular:
Anti-government protesters demonstrate in  Pearl Square in Manama, Bahrain, on Feb. 20













Bahrain Protesters Camp Out In Square Ahead Of Talks "The tiny gulf state has a majority Shi’a population but is ruled by a Sunni royal family. The Shi’ite population complains it has been discriminated against when it comes to housing and government jobs.However, protesters have been at pains to describe their rebellion as nonsectarian. They have chanted slogans like: "There are no Sunnis or Shi’a, just Bahraini unity."

US Urges Arab Governments to Heed Calls for Change  ""That is what we want to see," continued Clinton. "At the same time, we recognize that this process can be hijacked by both outside and inside elements."As an example, Secretary Clinton pointed to the Iranian revolution of the late 1970s, where the people overthrew the totalitarian Shah and saw a totalitarian theocratic regime come to power in its place. She said the goal is not simply for nations to hold an election in which one autocratic ruler is replaced by another, but rather for a democratic process to take root that yields true representative governments."

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