" . . .until there is regime change causing Iran’s abandonment of nuclear aspirations and an end to attacks on and harassment of tankers in the Gulf, the U.S will still need the means to strike Iranian targets."
"At this point in the Iran conflict, it seems nothing dramatic will transpire before the November midterm elections. While President Trump is well known for unpredictability, a major bombardment would shock the world’s energy system and further raise the price of gasoline and diesel, hurting consumers, farmers, and various sectors. It would also further deplete U.S. stocks of munitions such as offensive cruise missiles and the Patriot and THAAD systems needed to defend U.S. assets and Gulf allies against Iran’s retaliation. Iran’s hopeful calculation is a Democratic sweep of Congress eventually resulting in a better deal for itself, recognition by the U.S. that it must withdraw its vulnerable bases from the Gulf, and a ruined Trump presidency.
"While battlefield metrics and decapitation of its government’s leadership have been impressive, Iran is driven by vindictiveness and is cognizant that the U.S. has not achieved strategic objectives: complete destruction of nuclear infrastructure, seizure of fissile material, total degradation of Iran’s armed forces and military-industrial complex, and regime change. Escalation by Iran is certainly their option, and with the recent withdrawal of the U.S. military from Shiite Iraq, Iran may be tempted to widen the conflict through its militias there, creating yet another front.
"Regardless of a Democratic sweep of at least the House of Representatives in November, and even a future Democratic administration in 2029, it is difficult to imagine a Biden-style full-scale, abrupt retreat from the Gulf, where nearly one-third of the world’s oil is produced. While Europe imported only 6 percent of its oil from the Middle East in 2025, it is nonetheless vulnerable to oil prices, as is India, which imported 3 million barrels per day from the Middle East in September. However, neither Europe nor India have the will or the military resources to secure the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, and only the U.S. can assure the world’s energy security." . . .More.
Frank Schell is a former senior vice president of the First National Bank of Chicago and later was a management consultant. He was a lecturer at the Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago on South Asia public policy and is a contributor of opinion pieces to various journals. He has travelled extensively throughout Iran.
No comments:
Post a Comment